Forecast SROI in Practice:

He Oranga Poutama

A concise walk-through of how we build a defensible SROI: scope, evidence, monetisation choices, and results you can audit.

Logo for 'He Oranga Poutama' in yellow text with a stylized orange icon.

EXAMPLE SROI - HE ORANGA POUTAMA

  • SROI REPORT

    Full Social Impact Assessment (PDF). Methods, evidence, assumptions, and appendices.

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    Black and white photo of children with a man raising his hand in the sky, some children with their hands raised, and clouds in the background. Text overlay: 'He Oranga Poutama, Social Impact Assessment, Analysis of Impact on the Manawatū Region. Matatahi logo at the bottom.

  • SROI Summary

    Two-page SROI Summary (PDF). Headline numbers, drivers, and scope.

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    Flowchart showing social return on investment (SROI) of investing in He Oranga Poutama, with benefits including improved physical health, social connectedness, reduced depression/anxiety, and life satisfaction. Visuals include hexagons, lines and color-coded sections indicating impacts, outcomes, and social value benefits.

  • SROI Audit

    Twelve SROI Checks — HOP (PDF). The audit view of the model choices.

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    Text on a black background with phrases in white and yellow, including 'Twelve SROI Checks', 'He Oranga Poutama', and 'Forecast SROI', along with a mountain logo and the word 'Matatahi'.

At-a-glance results

  • Benefit–Cost Ratio (base): 5.1 : 1

  • Present Value of benefits: $1.13m (real 2025 NZD)

  • Present Value of costs: $0.22m

  • NPV: $0.90m

  • Cohort: ~400 people

  • Sensitivity range: 0.6–8.6 : 1 (driven mainly by attribution)

A slide titled "Programme overview" with information about a community-led initiative for Māori participation in sport, led by iwi and sports organizations including Te Pae Oranga o Ruahine o Tararua, Sport Manawatū Trust, and Sport New Zealand. It mentions 400 participants, a program cost of $222,000, and a 3-year timeframe from 2019 to 2021. The bottom right corner features the Matātahi logo.
Slide titled "Benefit-cost & sensitivity analysis" displaying a table with scenarios and their financial metrics. Scenarios include very optimistic, moderately optimistic, base case, moderately pessimistic, and very pessimistic. Each shows NPV in thousands of dollars and BCR values. A text box highlights the base case with specific figures, noting positive benefits under most scenarios and a sensitivity analysis that remains positive even under extreme pessimism.
Bar chart showing quantified benefits of various activities: physical health, social connections, mental health, life satisfaction, volunteering. Physical health has the highest benefit, followed by social connections, mental health, life satisfaction, and volunteering. A box displays total NPV of $904K and benefit-cost ratio of 5.1. The chart has a black background with white text and light blue bars, and there is a logo in the bottom right corner.
Bar chart titled 'Economic multipliers' showing household incomes, GDP contribution, and total output with their respective values in NZ$000. Text box indicates employment impact supports 2-4 full-time equivalents with a $222k investment, yielding $400k total output, with $170k to GDP and $110k to wages and salaries. Logo at bottom right reading 'MATATII'.

What this example covers

He Oranga Poutama supports community-led participation in active recreation and sport across the Manawatū region. The example shows how we translate observed outcomes into a forecast SROI using Treasury’s CBAx approach, in real 2025 NZD with a 2% social discount rate.

What we measured (monetised)

Five material outcome domains were monetised with documented sources and base years:

  • Improved physical health (adults & youth)

  • Avoided moderate depression/anxiety

  • Social connectedness / group membership

  • Life satisfaction uplift

  • Regular volunteering

Unit values used in the model (per person-year): $1,742 (adult physical activity), $1,223 (youth physical activity), $20,000 (avoided depression/anxiety), $1,084 (social connectedness), $745 (volunteering).

What we didn’t monetise

Cultural identity and belonging, community leadership, marae engagement, environmental connection (Māra Kai), and other taonga were reported qualitatively to avoid double-counting and preserve conservative claims. These sit outside the ratio but are material to decision-makers.

Method in brief

  • Counterfactual & deadweight: estimate what would have happened anyway before any other adjustments.

  • Attribution: allocate shares across contributors; never assume 100%.

  • Duration & drop-off: retain only the portion that persists each year (physical health to three years; social connection and volunteering into year two; some outcomes set to one year).

  • Discounting: convert to present value at 2%.
    Approach follows the 12-check audit pathway for design → causality → valuation.

Results & drivers

The largest monetised contributions come from improved physical health and social connectedness, with additional value from avoided depression/anxiety, life satisfaction, and volunteering. Sensitivity testing shows the key lever is attribution; the base case remains positive under moderate settings.

John Samuela

Kaiarahi Kaupapa (Project Manager/Lead)

“Awesome mahi. It helped HOP get an award with Sport NZ!”